Analysis of alumina due to stagflation of alumina
February 21, 2022
Recently, the overall trend of the alumina market has been stable. The mainstream price of the market is 2750-2850 yuan/ton. The prices in various regions are 2800-2850 yuan/ton in Henan, 2750-2800 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2750 yuan/ton in Shanxi, and 2750 yuan/ton in southwest. The actual transaction price of alumina has risen slightly. The actual transaction price in Henan has already exceeded 2,800 yuan/ton. In Shandong, there is also a small transaction of 2,800 yuan/ton. The price in Shanxi has not changed. The transportation pressure is still the main face of Shanxi alumina plant. problem. In terms of production news: With the weakening of the state's control over the use of electricity, the alumina in the southwestern region began to be fully loaded. It is understood that Nanchuan Pioneer has been fully loaded, and Chinalco Chongqing is still in the trial phase. Chinalco Zunyi has basically reached a production line; Shanxi Luneng Jinbei has increased its production capacity to 200,000 tons/month; Henan New Energy Co., Ltd. Has entered the final stage. According to statistics, the national alumina production capacity in February was 43.98 million tons, and the starting capacity was 37.22 million tons. It is estimated that China's alumina output in February will be 3.102 million tons. In February, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 2.081 million tons, the starting capacity was 16.7475 million tons, and the February output was 1.4 million tons. Basic balance of supply and demand. The price of alumina has only risen after the price of electrolytic aluminum has stabilized. The analysis believes that the reasons for the stagflation of alumina are mainly as follows: 1 The funds of downstream procurement manufacturers have become relatively tight. Under the tightening monetary policy that the country continued to introduce in 2010, corporate loans were significantly suppressed. The tight capital caused the electrolytic aluminum plant to have insufficient funds to store more alumina, and the alumina inventory could not be transferred from the alumina plant to the electrolytic aluminum plant. In the case of constant demand, the alumina plant inventory pressure increased, dragging the alumina price slowly. After the Spring Festival, which was expected two years ago, the large-scale resumption of production of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants did not occur. The re-production of electrolytic aluminum appeared in a decentralized manner, but the speed and strength did not meet expectations. Secondly, there has not been any news that the new capacity of electrolytic aluminum has been put into production on a large scale. Although the downstream demand for alumina is increasing, it has not caused a scale effect psychologically, and it is unable to accumulate enough popularity for the increase in alumina prices.
